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2019: close to record-breaking year, forecasts Met Office

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2019 will be close to record warmth due to climate change and the added effect of El Niño-related warming in the Pacific.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2019 to be between 0.98 °C and 1.22 °C, with a central estimate of 1.10 °C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Since 1850, 2016 is the warmest year on record with a central estimate of 1.15 °C above the same baseline.

Modest warming from El Niño combined with much larger effects due to rising levels of greenhouse gases are driving the 2019 temperature forecast. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “Our forecasts suggest that by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000.