Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers

Lockdown measures may have averted 3.1 million deaths from covid-19 across 11 European countries, including 470 000 in the UK, a new modelling study indicates.

This BMJ article suggests that the researchers of the report are warning that European countries are very far from achieving herd immunity, as less than 4% of their populations were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May, when lockdowns started to be lifted.

The estimated proportion of the total population infected varies between the countries from less than 1% in Norway, Germany, and Austria to 8% in Belgium (box 1).

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